 The Clarinet BBoard
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Author: adamerik
Date: 2009-10-31 21:42
First of all: Thanks everyone who helped out on my first post, asking how many clarinetplayers there are in the world. A very lively and informative discussion- thanks for that!
Now, I´m curious to know if anybody has any idea of how many clarinets are sold worldwide a year- including all brands.
Again, this is for an educational project.
Thanks a lot- Adam.
adamsimonsen.com
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Author: GBK
Date: 2009-10-31 23:27
Listening today to three of my beginners, I'd say about three too many. ![[wink]](http://test.woodwind.org/clarinet/BBoard/smileys/smilie3.gif)
...GBK
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Author: adamerik
Date: 2009-11-01 10:18
Hi Liquorice.
Are you serious about this number, and if yes, where do you have it from? It´s been very difficult to get some serious info on this question, partly because all the manufactors, such as Yamaha and Buffet are very cautious about giving out such info- for business reasons.
But thanks anyways- curious to hear any other suggestions.
Adam.
adamsimonsen.com
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Author: tictactux ★2017
Date: 2009-11-01 10:32
I am still unsure whether or not to include all used instruments, and whether or not to include instruments that are bought and shortly afterwards resold.
--
Ben
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Author: rsholmes
Date: 2009-11-01 12:28
I didn't see the first discussion. Does the estimate of number of clarinet players include beginners in schools? My first guess would be that the great majority of clarinet sales are to beginners -- that is, the number of people who buy one clarinet in their lifetime (or have one bought for them) greatly outnumbers the number who buy two or more, and they in turn greatly outnumber those who buy many more than two. In that case the number of clarinets sold per year would be not much larger than the number of people who start clarinet per year. And that would be the number of clarinet players in the world (if that includes beginners) divided by the average length of time they play clarinet -- which, if you include beginners, I would guess is only a couple of years or so.
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Author: JJAlbrecht
Date: 2009-11-01 15:11
I think liquorice was pulling your chain. After all 87% of all statistics are made up on the spot. (I just made that up!) ![[rotate]](http://test.woodwind.org/clarinet/BBoard/smileys/smiley25.gif)
Jeff (edit for typos)
“Everyone discovers their own way of destroying themselves, and some people choose the clarinet.” Kalman Opperman, 1919-2010
"A drummer is a musician's best friend."
Post Edited (2009-11-01 15:12)
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Author: Jack Kissinger
Date: 2009-11-01 15:16
Assuming no breaks in the serial numbers, Buffet made about 15,000 professional soprano clarinets in 2004 and again in 2005, and about 13,200 in 2006. Including their student models and harmony clarinets, 47,523 could be their production for a single year -- and since all the other brands are CSOs, anyway, Liquorice is undoubtedly correct, 47523 real clarinets in a year. ![[toast]](http://test.woodwind.org/clarinet/BBoard/smileys/smiley15.gif)
Best regards,
jnk
Post Edited (2009-11-01 15:19)
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Author: BartHx
Date: 2009-11-01 15:41
Between us, my brother and I currently have at least ten clarinets including an R-13 and several top of the line (for their time) Selmers. Of those, only the R-13 was purchased new. I doubt there is any way to estimate total sales with anything that could be considered to be a reasonable estimate. Serial numbers may be a way to determine approximately how many are sold new.
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Author: bill28099
Date: 2009-11-01 17:25
http://test.woodwind.org/clarinet/BBoard/read.html?f=1&i=312168&t=312149
Another one of these statistics problems. Well if we assume from the above that there are ~1,600,000 world wide clarinet players in grades 7 to 12 and each one of them will purchase 1 new horn in their academic career that would account for gross world sales of 270,000 units. So my estimate would be 270,000 +/- 135,000 units. I'm with rsholmes and figure that the majority of players will buy only one horn in their lifetime and that will be when they are in school.
A great teacher gives you answers to questions
you don't even know you should ask.
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Author: CocoboloKid
Date: 2009-11-02 06:04
Has Iceland chimed in yet to tell us that 90% of however many clarinets are sold in the entire world every year are Buffets? ;-)
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Author: adamerik
Date: 2009-11-02 09:12
So far so good- thanks to everyone for inputs to my question.
It´s hard to figure- but still an interesting question- and funny that nobody has any hardcore knowledge about this- I guess it´s only the CEO of Buffet-Selmer or Yamaha that really knows... wonder what it takes to make them talk????
Thanks again- Adam.
adamsimonsen.com
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Author: JJAlbrecht
Date: 2009-11-02 13:18
Buffet-Selmer??? When did they merge? ![[whoa]](http://test.woodwind.org/clarinet/BBoard/smileys/smilie10.gif)
Even serial numbers don't tell how many get sold... just how many are produced. Who knows hoew many of them will not get sold because theyaren't very good?
Jeff
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Author: ned
Date: 2009-11-02 23:09
Jack Kissiner writes: ''Assuming no breaks in the serial numbers, Buffet made about 15,000 professional soprano clarinets in 2004 and again in 2005, and about 13,200 in 2006. Including their student models and harmony clarinets, 47,523 could be their production for a single year ''
Here I am again........sucked into another meaningless question............
You will need to ask the Chinese, Indians and assorted eastern European mfrs. too I'd say..........
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Author: clarinetist04
Date: 2009-11-02 23:54
This is a pretty good interview question. When I interviewed my senior year of college I was asked what the demand was for new washer machines in the US in any given year. Had to reason through it right on the spot -- similar type of question and it seems like Bill has made a reasonable estimation!
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Author: Nessie1
Date: 2009-11-03 13:09
Let's look at it another way - I've played for 33 years and only owned 1 single B flat (beginner's instrument) and two pairs in all that time. Not that I would not ideally have wanted more but that is the way my life worked out. If this were so for most serious players - i.e an average of one instrument every 6-7 years, what kind of sales numbers would be be talking about then?
On the other hand, I have friends who have played for similar lengths of time and have got through several Effers, basses, C clarinets, Altos and don't even get me started on the sopranos!
Also, if we're talking about sales, what about music schools and similar organisations which buy instruments to lend or rent?
Vanessa.
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Author: bill28099
Date: 2009-11-04 03:56
Adult purchases really don't count for much in the grand scheme of things. Let's see, in my small world we have a high school band of ~100 and a community band of ~80. The high school is 3 years so 33 band members are seniors. Lets also assume the community band represents the total retention of players over the the last 40 years so that would mean 2 players per year of the high school variety keep playing into adulthood. 2/33 is 6%. Wow, a lot higher then I would have initially figured, maybe our HS music program isn't a complete waste.
Now since world wide there are 270,000 seniors in HS tooting the clarinet that would mean there are 16,200 players retained each year for a 40 year total of 648,000. So the question is how many instruments per year does this group purchase or do the majority of them continue to play the horn they used in high school. Well, if I'm any kind of an example in the last 40 years I've purchased 2 new horns, note that used ones do not count is these calculations. Am I typical, who knows, but I'm going to assume I am. So adults will purchase an additional 32,400 horns which can now be added to my initial estimate of 270,000 which were purchased for students. And of course these number are all at least +/- 50%
As far as music schools and rentals are concerned, in a round about way they are included as I assumed every secondary student received one new horn, I wasn't specific about where that new horn came from nor do I need to be.
A great teacher gives you answers to questions
you don't even know you should ask.
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Author: ned
Date: 2009-11-05 00:03
bill28099 says "Now since world wide there are 270,000 seniors in HS tooting the clarinet.............''
Do you mean that there only 270,000 final year high school students in the world?
The original question is in regard to ''.....clarinets sold worldwide....'', I suspect you are quoting USA statistics from some source.
In an earlier post, I mentioned other markets such as China, India and Europe and our southern hemisphere - I reckon you'd better have another crack at guessing a true ''worldwide'' number of ''senior'' (a.k.a.) final year high school students.
Ohh..........you can add Africa as well, err, and then there's a small Pacific islands market too. I am unaware of a clarinet player population for Antarctica.....possibly one or two, at best.
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Author: bill28099
Date: 2009-11-05 04:00
No, go back to my original post and see how I rationalized the estimate of 1,600,000 students in grades 7-12 tooting the clarinet IN THE WORLD. Dividing that by 6 gives you 270,000 seniors. Anyway, since I started out with the population of the World as the basis of my calculations all continents and countries are included.
Now there is plenty one could challenge my calculations on. Should I have included more then the top 10% who have wealth in the world, maybe I should have used 15% or 20%. I don't know, but what I do know for sure is the bottom 50% who are living on $2.50 a day are preoccupied feeding themselves and can't afford to give up a years wage for a clarinet. 80% of the world is living on less then $10 a day and likely should be excluded from our pool of potential players.
Is my estimate that 8% of all secondary school students are taking music correct? I don't know, but that's what it was in my high school. The 11.7% of total US population are students in grades 7-12 comes off the internet and is for the US, I doubt the rest of the economically wealthy world is a whole lot different.
And no I'm not quoting any source, I am the source. Should anyone be able to provide me with better inputs or a rational for using different numbers or assumptions, I'll be happy to recalculate and recalculate and recalculate....................................................................................
Now if someone could just tell me how many professional clarinet players there are in the world...............
A great teacher gives you answers to questions
you don't even know you should ask.
Post Edited (2009-11-05 04:31)
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Author: adamerik
Date: 2009-11-06 16:26
Again I can only say that I´m stunned about the incredible feedback on my question- Thanks!!
Not really sure though, if I got closer to an answer...
Now an easier question is: How many clarinet members on this forum?? Anyone dares??
Best regards- Adam.
adamsimonsen.com
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