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Author: Tony Pay ★2017
Date: 2014-08-20 16:16
You will have seen that people HAVE given percentage answers. But, unfortunately, our willingness to give such answers is akin to our willingness to believe our first instincts when we hear – for example – that someone has claimed evidence linking the MMR vaccine and autism.
That seemed superficially plausible, especially when there was a sudden rush of reports from parents whose children were autistic, and had been given the MMR vaccine in early childhood.
It took a long time to turn the situation around, even though the hard scientific evidence was in the opposite direction.
Someone has called our instinct to react in this way 'the hypercredulity instinct' – and it's an instinct we all share as human beings. How we make – how we often NEED to make – these sort of 'quick and dirty' judgements is very well documented in 'Thinking Fast and Slow' by Nobel prize-winner Daniel Kahneman.
So now – thinking fast:-) – if I wanted to pluck some numbers out of the air in the case in question: I recall the mouthpiece that suddenly seemed to solve all my problems. Then I remember my friend's clarinet that was so much better than mine. If only _I_ had had that clarinet!
And how about that reed, when I was a student, that seemed to play ANYTHING?
In this way, I might juggle things in my mind and come up with some rough answers.
But if I think more carefully (and slowly), I realise that 'my problems' actually came back later, despite that mouthpiece. And I never lived with my friend's clarinet, and so its deficiencies never had a chance to make themselves apparent. And perhaps, though that reed SEEMED wonderful at the time, perhaps I just wasn't a very good player at the time.
If we then try to 'think slow', and ask ourselves what the question MEANS – whether the isolated incidents we may bring to mind really show anything useful about the clarinet – we may be more willing to struggle with the technical things that the scientists tell us.
Science, after all, is what you get when you 'think slow'.
'Thinking slow' is what NASA failed to do when they launched Challenger.
Tony
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Dan Shusta |
2014-08-18 22:50 |
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as9934 |
2014-08-19 01:21 |
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sfalexi |
2014-08-19 01:39 |
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Dan Shusta |
2014-08-19 03:06 |
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Paul Aviles |
2014-08-19 07:02 |
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pewd |
2014-08-19 07:11 |
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mnhnhyouh |
2014-08-19 10:57 |
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Tony Pay |
2014-08-19 14:23 |
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sonicbang |
2014-08-19 15:23 |
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Paul Aviles |
2014-08-19 17:52 |
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Tony Pay |
2014-08-19 18:35 |
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Ed Palanker |
2014-08-19 18:58 |
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Dan Shusta |
2014-08-19 20:04 |
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Tony Pay |
2014-08-19 20:09 |
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Dan Shusta |
2014-08-19 20:27 |
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Mark Charette |
2014-08-19 20:30 |
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Tony Pay |
2014-08-19 21:27 |
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DavidBlumberg |
2014-08-19 22:38 |
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DavidBlumberg |
2014-08-19 22:39 |
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Dan Shusta |
2014-08-19 22:45 |
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Mark Charette |
2014-08-19 22:58 |
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kdk |
2014-08-19 23:26 |
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Dan Shusta |
2014-08-19 23:11 |
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Mark Charette |
2014-08-19 23:42 |
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DavidBlumberg |
2014-08-19 23:13 |
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DavidBlumberg |
2014-08-19 23:13 |
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kdk |
2014-08-19 23:37 |
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Paul Aviles |
2014-08-20 00:23 |
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Tony Pay |
2014-08-20 01:38 |
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Dan Shusta |
2014-08-20 08:52 |
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sonicbang |
2014-08-20 11:49 |
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Tony Pay |
2014-08-20 13:54 |
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Johan H Nilsson |
2014-08-20 14:38 |
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DavidBlumberg |
2014-08-20 14:41 |
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BobD |
2014-08-20 16:01 |
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Re: Mouthpiece tone production percentage new |
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Tony Pay |
2014-08-20 16:16 |
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Paul Aviles |
2014-08-20 16:38 |
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Dan Shusta |
2014-08-20 19:25 |
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Mark Charette |
2014-08-20 19:33 |
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Tony Pay |
2014-08-20 19:45 |
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Mark Charette |
2014-08-20 19:54 |
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Dan Shusta |
2014-08-20 20:23 |
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Paul Aviles |
2014-08-20 21:40 |
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Dan Shusta |
2014-08-20 22:48 |
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Brad Behn |
2014-08-20 22:56 |
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Arnoldstang |
2014-08-21 00:03 |
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Tony Pay |
2014-08-21 00:03 |
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Paul Aviles |
2014-08-21 00:15 |
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Tony Pay |
2014-08-21 00:17 |
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Arnoldstang |
2014-08-21 01:05 |
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Johan H Nilsson |
2014-08-21 04:24 |
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Tony Pay |
2014-08-22 03:08 |
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Johan H Nilsson |
2014-08-28 14:19 |
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cyclopathic |
2014-08-28 22:30 |
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Tony Pay |
2014-08-29 03:00 |
The Clarinet BBoard
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