Klarinet Archive - Posting 000009.txt from 2005/09

From: ormo2ndtoby@-----.net (Ormondtoby Montoya)
Subj: [kl] Wagering --- what is the stake?
Date: Thu, 01 Sep 2005 15:04:10 -0400

An important aspect of the hurricane which should not be swept under the
table:

How large were the stakes?

For example, when you're in a casino and gambling for a few dollars, it
makes sense to calculate the odds and to maximize your expectations in a
purely mathematical sense. If you lose, it won't be the end of the
world for you.

However, when the stakes are so high that you _cannot afford to lose_,
then 'mathematics' becomes less relevant.

If (say) the odds are 1 in 100 against, but I offer to pay a huge amount
if you win, will you take the bet if losing means the end of your life?
Probably not, since the stake if you lose is so huge.

Several people have posted about evacuating unnecessarily twice, or even
half-a-dozen times; but for many the penalty for 'losing' was death this
time. Does the same logic apply when the stakes are this high?

The above doesn't apply to persons who would have evacuated if they had
had the resources or capability. Those were the persons to whom the
government especially owed (and still owe) protection and oversight and
support.

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