Klarinet Archive - Posting 000064.txt from 2003/10

From: ormondtoby@-----.net (Ormondtoby Montoya)
Subj: Re: [kl] Almost bought a Stolen German System Clarinet
Date: Sat, 4 Oct 2003 09:29:55 -0400

Sue=A0wrote:

> You know, the seller has 32,857 POSITIVE
> feedbacks, and 357 negatives. That doesn't
> seem like a LOT of negatives

This is where interpreting statistics can be fun. It illustrates the
ambiguity of a "fact". You could say either:

(1) "Only 1% of his customers complain, and that's not so bad."

or you could say:

(2) "Over a period of five years (since Nov 5, 1998), this man has
accumulated 1 complaint every 5th day. Would I go into a one-man store
(as opposed to a large store with a large staff) with that sort of
history?"

or you could say:

(3) "This man claims 32,000+ feedbacks in 5 years, or more than 15 per
calendar day. Do I believe this? If I were to discount the bulk of
the positive feedbacks as being contrived, then 357 negatives would look
much worse."

We have no way of knowing the truth in this case, but this strikes me as
a clear-cut warning signal.

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