Klarinet Archive - Posting 000629.txt from 1998/08

From: "Tim Roberts" <timr@-----.com>
Subj: [kl] Re: Y2K
Date: Fri, 21 Aug 1998 17:13:36 -0400

On 21 Aug 1998 20:15:01 -0000, <GrabnerWG@-----.com> wrote:
>The Y2K problem is real!

Yes, but there has been far too much hysterics generated about this topic.
Let's take a reality check for a minute.

>The cariest thing is that so many things that we take for granted are one
>way or another governed by microchips pre 486. Electric power grids
>for example. Phone switching equipment. Municipal water supplies.

Phone switching equipment??? Municipal water supplies??? Can you possibly
conceive of a situation in which a critical process in either of those two
cases is controlled by a processor which cares about the absolute date?
Phone BILLING equipment, maybe, but not SWITCHING.

Let's assume for a minute the pumps in my city's water supply use
computerized timers. Why would they care about the date? They're interested
in intervals of hours, not years. Even if they do get confused at midnight
on 1/1/00, the operators are just going to punch "reset" and everything will
be happy. I dare say that most of the time-sensitive processes people are
worried about are similar.

Some have mentioned your car stalling or refusing to start. Yes, your car is
highly computerized, and it probably cares about time intervals. But, the
last time you replaced your car's battery, no matter how new, did you tell it
the year? No, you didn't. Maybe they're keeping a count of seconds or
revolutions, but they're not reading the year, and therefore they're immune
to the Y2K issue.

Some have mentioned microwave ovens. Did you ever tell your microwave the
date? I certainly didn't tell mine.

I don't have any trouble believing that my VCR might mishandle a two-hour TV
program which starts at 11:30PM 12/31/99, but once midnight has passed, it's
going to be happy again.

Now, I do believe there will be problems in billing systems. But let's get
real: any downtime in a system where disruption involves loss of income or
delay in billing is going to be fixed IMMEDIATELY. The bank is not going to
issue any statements giving me 100 years worth of interest. It seems to me
what we need to be worry about are things like social security payments to
our grandparents. That's the kind of thing that might not get noticed for
months.

>Tip........stay at home late 1999 and early 2000....many things will just
>not work! You do NOT want t be stranded in Tunisia in a hotel with no power,
>phone, running water, or sanitation.

Sanitation??? What part of any sewer system possible cares about the year?

>AND American Express WONT be able to
>replace your stolen card....or even get cash to you.

In fact, I expect that American Express will be one of the companies which
handles this situation with great aplomb. As I said, any interruption which
affects the bottom line is going to be repaired AT ONCE.

>I plan to NOT FLY in Dec 1999 thru Feb 2000........do you know how old the
>computers are that are used by the FAA??????? They cant even get parts
>anymore.

You are correct, their computers are old. BUT NONE OF THOSE COMPUTERS CARES
WHAT YEAR IT IS! Computers will not expire in a puff of smoke upon the
stroke of the year 2000.

>I'm not predicting doomsday....the world got along without computers for
>4 1/2 billion years.....however....get ready for some annoying if not
>dangerous disruptions.

"Annoying" I believe. I expect I'll get one or two bills with confusing
information, and more than a few personal letters will go out dated "1900".
But that's about it.

>Many in the know are, or will be: stocking fresh water, buying a portable
>generator and fuel, stocking up on canned goods and toilet paper and other
>necessities, ...

This is just foolishness. We're not talking about a tornado. Truck drivers
will still be bringing toilet paper to your local Safeway store, which will
be perfectly happy to sell it to you. Even if they have to set the date on
their inventory control computers back to 1990, your grocery store chain WILL
continue to sell.

>laying a supply of cash (will cash stations work?) etc etc etc.

Of course your ATM will work. It might go down exactly at midnight, but it
will be back up by 12:30 after they reboot, and then we'll be done with all
of this hoopla. That is, until 2099, when we'll do it all again, because
programmers in 2069 won't remember the great "Y2K" issue, and will be once
again storing only the last two digits.

--
- Tim Roberts, timr@-----.com
Providenza & Boekelheide, Inc.

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